Polls are much like tips at the racetrack in that they claim to predict the winners of races, but frequently those tips and polls don’t match the end result.
While most emphasis has been placed on who will have control in the House, the Senate races may promise the most excitement.
Currently, Republicans hold a 51-49 narrow lead (47 Democrats and 2 Independents).
There are 33 Senate seats up for grabs, many of which as incumbents hoping to hold on to their position.
In some of the Senate races, the polls show Democrats with small leads over their Republican opponents, causing them to claim victory with the election still 8 weeks out.
However, a more realistic look at who is running, what states Trump won in 2016, Republicans have a better chance of holding onto their lead and perhaps increasing it by a seat or two.
(The Hill) – Eight weeks out from the midterm elections, both Republicans and Democrats find themselves with a path to a Senate majority.
For Democrats, it is a surprising development given this year’s difficult political map: The party is defending nearly two-dozen seats, including 10 seats in states won by President Trump in 2016.
Yet if the party can sweep every race considered a toss-up, it would end up with a 52-48 majority in the next Congress — even while losing Texas, where Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) is giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz a stronger-than-expected challenge.
The path for the GOP remains easier — and much more realistic.
If Republicans win just two of the eight races considered by The Cook Political Report to be toss-ups — which include five seats held by incumbent Democrats, one held by an incumbent Republican and two GOP seats where the incumbent is retiring — they would keep the Senate with a 50-50 margin and Vice President Pence’s tie-breaking vote…
I still contend that Republicans can increase their leads in both the House and Senate if they quit running negative campaigns and focused on a few things.
They need to point out how many people, especially black Americans and Hispanics are working today.
They need to point out that workers are seeing bigger take-home pay than before.
Then they need to point out that Democrats want to end all of that, putting tens of thousands of people out of work and those with jobs will take less pay.
That is, if Republicans were smart enough to realize the huge advantage they have and stop the useless attacks on their opponents.
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