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If the Iowa Caucuses Were Today


If the Iowa Caucuses were today, and everyone had to get off the sidelines and make a decision, this is how I predict the candidates would finish.

Furthermore, these projections are based on two assumptions:

1) We will set a record for caucus turnout given the energy on the ground, and the new people I project Trump and Carson to bring to the table.

2) Much of the conservative vote will coalesce behind a candidate once people start horse-trading to see who has the momentum. For example, in 2012 when people saw Michele Bachmann was not going to win most of her support went to Santorum at the last minute to help him way out-perform his polls.
Turn out model: 138,000 Republicans

  1. Donald Trump (32,000 votes = 23%)
  2. Ted Cruz (30,000 votes = 21.7%)
  3. Ben Carson (29,500 votes = 21.3%)
  4. Marco Rubio (11,000 votes = 8%)
  5. Mike Huckabee (10,500 votes = 7.6%)
  6. Carly Fiorina (8,700 votes = 6.3%)
  7. Scott Walker (7,000 votes = 5.1%)
  8. Rand Paul (6,300 votes = 4.6%)

The rest of the candidates would split the final 3,000 votes.


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