Arctic Sea Ice More Stable Than Scientists Predicted
Despite dire predictions that the North Pole would be ice-free in the near future, Arctic Sea ice levels have been more stable than scientists predicted.
So far this winter, Arctic Sea ice levels are above where they were at the same time last winter, and are well within the the standard deviation of the 1981 to 2010 variation, according to daily sea ice data.
Europe’s CryoSat-2 satellite found that sea-ice volumes for the fall of 2014 were above the average extent for the last five years. Sea-ice levels were up sharply from 2011 and 2012, according to the satellite– only slightly lower than 2013 levels.
In 2013, CryoSat-2 found that Arctic sea ice levels increased 50 percent at the end of the region’s melting season. Arctic sea-ice coverage reached 2,100 cubic miles by that time, up from 1,400 cubic miles during the same time in 2012.
“The Antarctic is actually growing and all the evidence in the last few months suggests many assumptions about the poles was wrong,” Dr. Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Forum, told the U.K. Express.
“Global sea ice is at a record high, another key indicator that something is working in the opposite direction of what was predicted,” Peiser said. “Most people think the poles are melting… they’re not. This is a huge inconvenience that reality is now catching up with climate alarmists, who were predicting that the poles would be melting fairly soon.”
It was not too long ago that climate scientists and environmental activists were predicting the Arctic would be ice-free by now.
Former Vice President Al Gore famously claimed in 2008 that the North Pole would be completely ice-free by 2013– a prediction that has been proven wildly inaccurate.
“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said in 2008.
Gore echoed a 2007 claim made by climate scientist Wieslaw Maslowski, who said that “you can argue that maybe our projection of [an ice-free Arctic by 2013] is already too conservative.”
But even as the Arctic defies predictions of its demise, U.S. officials are still saying the region could be ice-free in the next couple of years.
Environmentalists at the Center for Biological Diversity warned the Arctic could be ice-free as soon as 2012. It wasn’t. Now, the group says that “climate scientists say the Arctic could be completely ice-free in the summer by the 2030s.”
Scientists also argue that future global temperature rises will continue to shrink the Arctic until it is ice-free, maybe even in our lifetimes.
“We have not seen an ice free period in the Arctic Ocean for 2.6 million years,” said Jochen Knies a marine geologist with the Geological Survey of Norway who recently authored a study on the issue. “However, we may see it in our lifetime.”
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