My phone, email, and social media accounts instantly started blowing up Tuesday in response to the news Jeb Bush was going to “actively explore” a 2016 presidential run.
Except the near-orgasmic response wasn’t from whom you might think.
It didn’t come from conservatives, but from the mainstream (liberal) media. Twelve hours later, a Google search for “Jeb Bush actively explore” returned over 3.8 million results, and the first page of entries was almost entirely comprised of mainstream media hits. Herein lies one of the primary reasons why Jeb Bush is never going to be elected President of these United States.
It doesn’t matter whom the Democrats nominate, provided that person is sane and doesn’t vacation in Thailand with NAMBLA. Jeb Bush cannot win. That’s not an opinion. That’s not a preference. That’s simple historical fact.
In fact, you can throw Chris Christie and Mitt Romney (should he be dumb enough to run again) in there, too. They can’t possibly win as well.
Forget what you think you know about “electability,” which isn’t a term but a moving target. A moving target the Republican Party establishment and mainstream media conspire together to affix permanently to conservatives. That’s why they never define it, because what it really means is “someone that would dare challenge our Marxist-Corporatist status quo can’t possibly be elected.”
There is a reason why every time we nominate the person the liberal media lectures us is “electable” we lose. Would Alabama take football strategy advice from Auburn, or vice versa? Would the Yankees allow the Red Sox to determine what free agents they should sign in the offseason? Would Lex Luthor run his plans for global conquest by Superman first?
Newsflash: the people that want us to lose, want us to lose.
Recent history shows there is a proven formula for Republicans winning the White House. It’s just not the electability mythology often propagated by the ruling class. Republicans win not by ignoring demographics or pandering to them. Republicans win by tailoring their principles to those demographics.
It starts in the primary, where the demographics are decidedly conservative. The first thing any successful Republican presidential nominee must do is energize the conservative base. Those are the ones that are the most likely to vote for him, and then provide the word-of-mouth advertising and grassroots activism on the ground that money can’t buy.
Those people are not energized by personalities as much as they are a candidate’s stance on the issues and their beliefs. For example, Reagan embodied a comprehensive conservative worldview that made him our champion. George W. Bush talked openly and freely about his faith and how it impacted his beliefs in a way that showed he understood us.
Sure, charisma helps, but it only gets you so far. If conservatives don’t believe you’re really with them, then they are never really with you.
But don’t just take my word for it. Ask Presidents Dole, McCain, and Romney if I’m right. Each of them were the ruling class’ “electable” candidate the year they ran, and each of them lost. Ask the second terms of Ford and George H.W. Bush that never happened as well. Both of them faced primary challenges from the Right after betraying conservative orthodoxy, and then lost the general election.
Look at this last election. Romney did worse turning out the base than McCain did. Romney’s base turnout was so anemic he did worse with his fellow Mormons than George W. Bush did in 2004. Romney won independents in key battleground states like Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado—but still lost the election. Meanwhile, Obama turned out his base in droves, proving the mainstream media polls predicting his win beforehand weren’t skewed but accurately predicted a more excited Democratic base.
Obama won independents by 8 points in 2008, but lost them by 5 points in 2012. Nonetheless, thanks to his base, Obama became the first non-wartime president in American history to be re-elected despite receiving fewer popular and Electoral College votes than his previous campaign.
Republicans cannot win without their base energized, but they can’t win with just an energized base, either. Yet here, too, it’s about issues and not personalities. The key issue here is the economy, which we all know, except it doesn’t factor in for Republicans the way we think it does.
A Republican who is seen as a corporatist shill cannot win the White House, because he cannot win enough middle class voters. This is why Democrats pounded on George H.W. Bush for not knowing how a supermarket scanner worked, and made sure everyone knew Romney couldn’t remember how many houses he owned. It’s also why McCain’s momentum in 2008 fizzled out the moment he stopped his campaign to aid and abet the passage of the still-hated TARP.
When Reagan defined government as the problem with the economy, getting in the way of the small business owner and entrepreneur, he won two landslides. When George H.W. Bush promised “read my lips no new taxes” he coined the decisive catchphrase of his 1988 victory (and after he violated it in office he received the lowest popular vote for a president’s re-election since 1912). His son, George W. Bush, successfully ran on tax cuts and smaller government as “compassionate conservatism” in 2000.
Jeb Bush has already advocated raising taxes for so-called “deficit relief,” which is the exact scam that cost his father his presidency. He’s on the board of a company that aggressively promotes Obamacare. He’s an open advocate of illegal aliens taking jobs and driving down wages for the jobs they don’t take.
All the while Jeb’s a multi-millionaire, of course, without a care in the world. The Democrats are going to demagogue that to death. Sometimes we write the Democrats’ commercials for them.
Even if Jeb captured the nomination, and then decided to put someone like Ted Cruz on the ticket to inspire the base, he’d still lose because a corporatist Republican cannot win middle class voters in the general.
Therefore, our individual opinions of Jeb as a candidate are really irrelevant as far as this exercise is concerned. Love him or hate him, he’s a fate accompli. And that doesn’t even account for “Bush fatigue.” Does an American electorate hungry for new political blood really want an eighth presidential election since 1980 with either a Bush or Clinton on the national ticket?
Nominating Jeb would be little more than a billion dollar, 12-month waste of everybody’s time. Unless you’re the GOP establishment, who would rather lose an election to Hillary than lose control of the party.
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Barb Wire.