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New Iowa Poll Is Bad, Bad News For Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush may remain the establishment favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, but a new poll of likely Iowa caucus voters has bad, bad news for the former Florida governor.

According to the poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University, Jeb Bush is the favored candidate of only 5 percent of likely caucus-goers, putting him in seventh place in a crowded GOP field.

Iowa’s favorite candidate, for the time being? That would be Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who is supported by 21 percent of likely voters. Behind him is a dogfight for second place, with Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Mike Huckabee all getting between 11 and 13 percent, effectively a statistical tie. Ben Carson polls in sixth, with 7 percent support.

Rounding out the poll are Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, and John Kasich, each of whom pulled 2-3 percent. Lindsey Graham was also included in the poll, but didn’t even net one percent support.

The poll, if accurate, suggests that Bush’s support base may be abruptly eroding in the Hawkeye State. Polls conducted in mid-April showed him getting as much as 16 percent support. However, since then, Walker, Paul, and Huckabee have all surged, and their gain appears to be Bush’s loss.

Besides his low support number, 25 percent of voters say they definitely would not support Bush, the highest number for any candidate (only Christie and Paul topped 10 percent), and only 39 percent view him favorably.

While he wasn’t in first, the poll also offers hopeful news for Rubio, whose 69 percent favorability rating was the highest of any candidate. As a result, he is a popular second-choice candidate, and when the candidates’ first-choice and second-choice support is combined together, he rises to a clear second place just behind Walker.

The poll was conducted by phone April 25-May 4 and surveyed 667 people. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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